Japan is poised to descend from its current position as the fourth-largest economy to the sixth by 2027, as projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This change in the global economic landscape is attributed to India and the United Kingdom surpassing Japan in terms of nominal gross domestic product (GDP).
The IMF forecasts Japan’s nominal GDP to reach $4.34 trillion in 2026 and $4.47 trillion in 2027. The country’s economic standing is under strain due to the yen’s depreciation against the US dollar and sluggish economic growth rates.
In contrast, India’s economy is on an upward trajectory, with its nominal GDP expected to hit $4.52 trillion by 2027, elevating it from sixth to fourth place globally. The United Kingdom is also anticipated to surpass Japan, with its GDP projected to be approximately $4.49 trillion in the same year.
The economic growth outlook varies significantly among these nations. Japan’s real GDP is projected to expand modestly by 0.7% annually in both 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, India is expected to experience robust growth, with a 7% increase in both years, driven by strong domestic demand and services activity. The UK is projected to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, according to IMF estimates.
Historically, Japan held the position of the world’s second-largest economy for several years before China overtook it in 2010. More recently, Japan fell behind Germany in 2023, dropping to fourth place. These latest projections underscore India’s rising economic influence and the shifting dynamics among the world’s largest economies.