US oil prices are maintaining their pressure on American wallets as the Iran war enters a dangerous new phase in its third week, with pump prices approaching $3.85 per gallon on Monday. Petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast the national average at $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while $4 gasoline remains a realistic near-term possibility. Three weeks of escalating military conflict have created a sustained and growing drain on American household finances.
The financial pressure on American wallets began building on February 28 when the US-Israel campaign against Iran commenced, triggering the first wave of oil price increases. From below $3 per gallon before the conflict, the national average has climbed 23% to $3.70, adding meaningfully to the financial burden faced by American drivers and businesses. The sustained pace of the increase has made this one of the most significant consumer energy cost events in recent years.
The US assault on Kharg Island last Friday, targeting Iran’s most critical oil processing asset, added new supply pressure that is likely to maintain the upward trend in pump prices. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil flows, continues to deny international markets access to a vital supply corridor. Brent crude oscillated between $103 and $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after briefly reaching $100 the previous day.
California motorists face the most acute pressure, with state averages above $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations charging over $8. Diesel for commercial freight transport could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally, further squeezing business margins and potentially pushing consumer goods prices higher. Oil executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each engaged the White House on the deepening supply crisis, with Exxon’s Darren Woods issuing specific warnings about speculative market activity compounding the financial pressure on consumers.
US equities opened Monday with modest gains, the S&P 500 rising approximately 1% after oil prices temporarily retreated. Oil company shares have surged to record highs since the conflict began. The pressure on American wallets from elevated US oil prices will continue to intensify for as long as the Iran war persists and the Strait of Hormuz remains blockaded.