Iran’s threatened energy retaliation against Gulf states could reshape global energy markets for years to come, analysts warned Wednesday, after the Revolutionary Guards announced imminent strikes against facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar following an Israeli attack on the South Pars gasfield. Specific targets were named and evacuation orders issued. Oil prices surged toward $110 a barrel as the potential consequences of Iran’s threats became clear.
South Pars, the world’s largest natural gas reserve, is shared between Iran and Qatar and has been the backbone of Iran’s gas economy throughout the conflict. The Israeli strike on the field — reportedly with US backing — was the first direct attack on Iranian fossil fuel production. Both countries had previously avoided this step, understanding that targeting Iranian energy infrastructure could trigger a catastrophic economic chain reaction. That chain reaction now appeared to be underway.
Iran’s state broadcaster named Saudi Arabia’s Samref refinery and Jubail complex, the UAE’s al-Hosn gasfield, and Qatar’s Mesaieed and Ras Laffan facilities as targets for strikes within hours. Workers and residents were told to leave immediately. Asaluyeh governor Eskandar Pasalar said the US-Israeli attack had crossed an irreversible line and declared the conflict had entered a total economic war phase.
Oil climbed to $108.60 per barrel — close to $110 — while European gas benchmarks jumped more than 7.5%. Gulf oil exports had already fallen 60% from pre-war levels due to infrastructure damage and Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran had continued shipping its own crude through the strait unimpeded, while Gulf neighbors struggled to export anything at all. A successful wave of Iranian strikes on Gulf energy sites could turn a manageable supply crisis into an unmanageable catastrophe.
Qatar’s government spokesperson warned that targeting energy infrastructure threatened global energy security. The scale of Iran’s threatened retaliation had no modern parallel — and neither did the potential consequences for global energy supply, pricing, and the economic stability of nations around the world. The coming hours would determine whether that potential became reality.