The geopolitics of normalization are taking center stage, with Iran’s role emerging as a significant factor in new Middle East alignments as Israel expresses interest in formalizing ties with Syria and Lebanon. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated on Monday that Israel sees an opportunity for expanded peace, fueled by the perceived weakening of Iran after the recent 12-day war and significant shifts in the regional power balance.
However, Saar maintained that the Golan Heights, annexed by Israel in 1981 after being captured from Syria in 1967, remains non-negotiable. This stance immediately clashes with Syria’s unwavering claim to the territory, which is largely supported by the international community despite President Donald Trump’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty.
The current Israeli push to broaden its “circle of peace” aligns with the pattern set by the 2020 Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco establish formal ties with Israel. These agreements, though significant breakthroughs, faced widespread unpopularity in the Arab world, highlighting the complex public and political landscape for further normalization.
A major hurdle remains the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which a senior Syrian official insisted must be the framework for any normalization. This initiative calls for Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories and the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s Foreign Minister, however, dismissed conditioning normalization on Palestinian statehood as “not constructive” and a security threat, indicating a deep ideological divide in the geopolitics of normalization.