After Operation Midnight Hammer: What Comes Next in the US-Iran Standoff?

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The name “Operation Midnight Hammer” has become central to understanding US-Iran relations, and President Trump’s State of the Union Address shed new light on where things stand nearly a year after the strikes that the name represents. The picture that emerged is one of a standoff that is still very much unresolved.

Trump said the strikes, which he described as having “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear weapons program, were followed by explicit warnings to Tehran not to rebuild. Iran, he said, has disregarded those warnings and is attempting to reconstitute its nuclear capabilities — a development he called both alarming and unacceptable.

At the same time, Trump confirmed that two rounds of nuclear negotiations have taken place this month. He said Iran is interested in reaching a deal and acknowledged that the diplomatic channel is active. But he said the gap between the two sides remains significant, centered on Iran’s unwillingness to publicly commit to never building a nuclear weapon.

Trump also described an advancing missile threat, with Iranian weapons already able to reach Europe and US installations, and longer-range rockets in development aimed at the American homeland. He said this missile development is taking place in parallel with the nuclear program and adds urgency to the need for a resolution.

What comes next, Trump suggested, depends on Iran. The US has shown it can and will use military force, has maintained diplomatic engagement, and has set a clear red line. The question is whether Iran will make the commitment that allows diplomacy to succeed — or whether the standoff will escalate toward another confrontation.

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